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Three Sundays Later  
Monday, June 26, 2006

I was out of town the last two Sundays, so I didn't play the usual slew of tournaments. I did get a chance to play yesterday, however.

PokerStars held its quarterly $1000 buy-in No Limit Hold 'Em tournament. Yum yum. Unfortunately it wasn't very yummy for me this time. I lost some chips gradually and had to win a coin flip just to get back to my starting stack. On my bust hand, I opened in the cutoff with AJ. The big blind called. The flop came QT6 with two spades and we both checked. The turn brought a blank and my opponent led out for 800 into the 1200 pot. I moved in for 3310 total. He thought for a while and then made the call with KT. I didn't improve. I don't think his call is good against the field in general, but I am trying to decide if he makes a good call against ME in that spot, as I'm (obviously?) more aggressive than the field in general. The problem for him, of course, is that I play a lot of made hands the same way (I had just played top set essentially the same way a few hands earlier, in fact), and there aren't a ton of semibluffs I can have. There are some, though--AK, KJ, J9, and 98, in addition to the AJ I actually had. OK, looking at all the combos I could have I actually think it's a relatively easy call for him with second pair in this situation, as there's almost a 50% chance he will win the hand (he only needs to win 32% of the time to break even). I guess that's not too surprising, given that we're talking about a cutoff vs. big blind scenario where the stacks aren't deep, but it's good to remind myself of the not-so-surprising things every once in a while.

On Party I just took a bunch of beats, none of which were interesting, though some of them were brutal.

And on Paradise, of course, I cashed. I actually think that, even though the sample size is relatively small, my results to this point seem to verify that the field at Paradise is significantly weaker than the fields in the other big Sunday tournaments. (And this definitely seems to be the case based on observation as well.) This week, with 55 players left, the button opened for 6k and the small blind called. I moved in for 21k from the big blind with As9s. The button mucked, and the small blind called instantly for almost all of his chips with KsQs. Yes, his call against me was correct, but of course his flat-call of the button's raise was wildly incorrect. Kc on the river and IGHN.

The World Series of Poker gets underway this week! It will be another couple weeks before I head out there myself, so I can safely say at this point, good luck to all my friends playing the first few events! I expect to be posting many congratulations in the coming days.



A Sunday Hit  
Monday, June 05, 2006

I cashed in two of the four Sunday tournaments I entered today, with the highlight being a fifth-place finish on, say it with, Par-a-dise, Po-ker. While it's always good to win money, and while I definitely won more than my fair share of showdowns today, my bustout from Dise was just brutal--the worst beat in the game, in my opinion. In case you can't guess what I'm getting at, let's just say that when the chips went in and the cards were turned up, I had a 2.17% chance of losing the hand (and no, it wasn't a one-outer on the river; there aren't nearly enough chips for river action at those final tables). Pretty damn gross. I've had a nice week, though, and a good Sunday overall, and it was fun to play a final table again, so I can't really complain. OK, I can complain, but I'll keep the complaints to a minimum.

I'm still looking for responses to my last open question: When a player has raised in No Limit Hold 'Em, and another player reraises to a number less than 2.5 times the size of the initial raise, and that player is not all-in, what percentage of the time does he have either kings or aces?

Send responses to jacksup@mattmatros.com.

I'm going to try to put in some decent hours before the World Cup begins on Friday, and my time gets taken up by watching lots and lots of soccer. So that's my week.

I'll leave you tonight with one funny hand from the Stars tournament.

Seat 1: m1keyisag (31940 in chips)
Seat 2: Rich Honey (8608 in chips)
Seat 3: AdamE (8203 in chips)
Seat 4: TheMasterJ33 (14619 in chips)
Seat 5: cglinn (8512 in chips)
Seat 6: sss_gogeta (17350 in chips)
Seat 7: jacksup (8695 in chips)
Seat 8: Org45 (20758 in chips)
Seat 9: maximumaces (8663 in chips)
m1keyisag: posts the ante 40
Rich Honey: posts the ante 40
AdamE: posts the ante 40
TheMasterJ33: posts the ante 40
cglinn: posts the ante 40
sss_gogeta: posts the ante 40
jacksup: posts the ante 40
Org45: posts the ante 40
maximumaces: posts the ante 40
sss_gogeta: posts small blind 400
jacksup: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jacksup [Kh 7h]
Org45: folds
maximumaces: calls 800
m1keyisag: folds
Rich Honey: folds
AdamE: folds
TheMasterJ33: folds
cglinn: folds
sss_gogeta: calls 400
jacksup: checks
*** FLOP *** [5s 9d 8c]
sss_gogeta: checks
jacksup: checks
maximumaces: bets 800
sss_gogeta: folds
jacksup: calls 800
*** TURN *** [5s 9d 8c] [5c]
jacksup: checks
maximumaces: checks
*** RIVER *** [5s 9d 8c 5c] [9h]
jacksup: checks
maximumaces: bets 1600
jacksup: calls 1600
*** SHOW DOWN ***
maximumaces: shows [2c 7d] (two pair, Nines and Fives)
jacksup: shows [Kh 7h] (two pair, Nines and Fives - King kicker)




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Poll

$30-$60 Hold 'Em. A new player posts in the cutoff, and raises his option when it gets to him. The button and small blind pass, and you call in the big blind with J3o. The flop comes 963 rainbow. You check and the cutoff bets. What now?

What is your play
Call
Fold
Raise

Click here to see Matt's Answer


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