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Blogger Championship
Wednesday, May 31, 2006  I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers. Registration code: 6378048 This is a fun tournament. Everyone with a blog should play it. Also, tell them you were referred by www.mattmatros.com. First prize is a WSOP seat, but I've already won mine from Full Tilt. No worries, as PokerStars assures me I will be taken care of in some capacity if I manage to win. See everyone on the felt. Congrats Nordberg!! Monday, May 29, 2006 My friend and protege Peter "Nordberg" Feldman has won the New Orleans World Series of Poker Circuit event, besting my other friend Gavin Smith in a grueling heads-up match. Nord takes home $532,950 for his efforts. I often half-jokingly say that I taught Peter everything he knows, and Peter will also tell people I've taught him everything he knows. But although I certainly pointed Peter in the right direction in terms of how to approach and think about poker tournaments, he did all the hard work himself. In fact, he might be a better player than I am at this point, thanks to his constant self-analysis, self-improvement, and neverending willingness to learn more about the game. He deserves every penny he's won. I haven't been this psyched for a fellow poker player since my longtime friend Greg Raymer won some big tournament in Vegas. Congratulations, Peter! I'm not the least bit surprised. Go Get 'Em, Boys! Sunday, May 28, 2006 Best of luck to my good friends Gavin Smith and Peter "Nordberg" Feldman, who sit first and second in chips at the final table of the WSOP Circuit event in New Orleans. Play goot, guys! Here are the results from the four-deuce overcall EV poll. Responses: 25 Highest EV estimate: 0 Lowest EV estimate: -450 (from five respondents) Average EV estimate: -380 According to a fantastic book I just read, a group of independent thinkers is always smarter than the smartest individual in the group--but to be able to tap into the group's intelligence, there has to be an effective way of aggregating the bits of information scattered across the group. For example, ask 1,000 people to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar, and the average answer will be extremely close to the actual number of jelly beans. I thought the group's EV estimate would be very close to the actual EV of the four-deuce overcall. But seeing the result, I'm highly skeptical. Let me back up a step and give MY answer to the EV question. I figured Steve was bluffing without a pair about 1/3 of the time, and I figured that a typical internet player is calling a pot-sized bet on a four-spade board with no spade and no pair about 1/150 of the time. Therefore the four-deuce is the best hand 1/450 of the time, and his EV is 1350/450 - 449*450/450 = -446 In the time since I made this guess, I've decided that I probably underestimated the average player's ability to call on a four-spade board with no pair, and I now think the EV of the four-deuce overcall is somewhere between my original guess and the group average. But I still think the real number is closer to my guess. I think there is a problem in taking a straight average of the group to aggregate our knowledge, in this case. I think an average might work if people could both highly overestimate or highly underestimate the value, as they could with the jelly beans. But in our example, there is no way to highly underestimate the four-deuce EV. It's extremely low. The four-deuce has 10% equity against two random hands, meaning the highest his EV could POSSIBLY be is .1(1800) - 450 = -270. Yet four people gave me an estimate of -270 or greater. This is the equivalent of asking someone how many jelly beans are in a jar, and having them say "negative seven." Unfortunately we'll never know the exact number. Or will we? I know a guy who's working on a crazy feature-intensive hand analysis tool, and with all the dataminers out there, it's possible we'll eventually have the data from enough similar situations, and the tools to analyze it, so that we can get a pretty good idea what the number is. Of course, this is more a curiosity than anything else. A real question I'm going to have when this hand analysis tool comes into being is: what percentage of the time do mini-reraisers have kings or aces? When I'm a medium stack, I find it somewhat difficult to handle the mini-reraise (if I'm deep I just call, and if I'm short I was already all-in before someone had the chance to mini-reraise me). I know my opponent probably has aa/kk, but sometimes he doesn't, and that fact makes the price enticing. So I think some exact numbers on this would be useful. In fact, let's make that the next open question to my readership. When a player has raised in No Limit Hold 'Em, and another player reraises to a number less than 2.5 times the size of the initial raise, and that player is not all-in, what percentage of the time does he have either kings or aces? Send responses to jacksup@mattmatros.com. Played two tournaments today, whiffed. Will play a bunch more tomorrow. Good luck me. Better luck to Gavin and Nord. You wanna see how I'm running? Thursday, May 25, 2006 This is how I'm running...(emphasis added) ***** Hand History for Game 4355453737 ***** $2000 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, May 25, 01:42:29 ET 2006 Table Full Blown (Real Money) Seat 3 is the button Total number of players : 6 Seat 2: imadegen ( $7858.22 ) Seat 3: Zavix ( $4669 ) Seat 4: Newb1e ( $4421 ) Seat 6: squeaky75 ( $6510.26 ) Seat 5: jacksup ( $1970 ) Seat 1: BooostedJ ( $2000 ) Newb1e posts small blind [$10]. jacksup posts big blind [$20]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to jacksup [ 4d 8d ] squeaky75 raises [$40]. imadegen calls [$40]. Zavix folds. Newb1e folds. jacksup calls [$20]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Jc, Td ] jacksup bets [$40]. squeaky75 raises [$225]. imadegen raises [$610]. jacksup is all-In [$1890] Newb1e: good read squeaky75 calls [$1705]. Newb1e: what'd u have? imadegen is all-In [$7208.22] squeaky75 COULD NOT RESPOND IN TIME.(DISCONNECTED) ** Dealing Turn ** [ Ad ] ** Dealing River ** [ Ts ] imadegen shows [ 9h, 8h ] a straight, seven to jack. jacksup shows [ 4d, 8d ] a flush, ace high. squeaky75 shows [ Tc, Jd ] a full house, Tens full of jacks. imadegen wins $5888.22 from side pot #1 with a straight, seven to jack. squeaky75 wins $5918 from the main pot with a full house, Tens full of jacks. So this asshole disconnects (and by the way, he'd apparently done it other times, and he left the game immediately after this hand) and gets to see the river where he hits his four-outer. Yes, I was lucky the diamond came, but I was pretty damn unlucky to be cheated out of $5,918. I sent a complaint to Party but I doubt it will matter. The lesson here (and it's one I should've known, and all my readers should know) is to never play in a No Limit cash game with disconnect protection. If you play on Party, make sure your table name has a (No DP) attached to it. This is how I'm running. This is also how I'm running. Full Tilt Poker Game #662371602: Table Larson (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:35:58 ET - 2006/05/25 Seat 1: naknak ($882) Seat 2: jacksup ($5,651.65) Seat 3: krisqueen ($3,099.50) Seat 4: BGSutton ($3,171.50) Seat 5: JFrank ($3,075) Seat 6: michaelsc ($1,559) naknak posts the small blind of $10 jacksup posts the big blind of $20 The button is in seat #6 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to jacksup [2s 7d] krisqueen folds BGSutton calls $20 JFrank calls $20 michaelsc folds naknak folds jacksup checks *** FLOP *** [7c Qs 2c] jacksup bets $20 BGSutton raises to $100 JFrank folds jacksup raises to $260 BGSutton calls $160 *** TURN *** [7c Qs 2c] [7h] jacksup bets $380 BGSutton has 15 seconds left to act BGSutton raises to $1,060 jacksup raises to $5,371.65, and is all in BGSutton calls $1,831.50, and is all in jacksup shows [2s 7d] BGSutton shows [Ad As] Uncalled bet of $2,480.15 returned to jacksup *** RIVER *** [7c Qs 2c 7h] [Ac] jacksup shows a full house, Sevens full of Twos BGSutton shows a full house, Aces full of Sevens BGSutton wins the pot ($6,370) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens This guy tries as hard as he can to give me all his chips by getting his money in with 4.5% equity. And he hits his hand. This is how I'm running. Strangely enough, I didn't get buried today. But by all rights, today should've been a nice score. Instead...this is how I'm running. OK, done complaining. It was cathartic for me, hope it wasn't boring for you. Results from the EV overcall poll will appear in the next post. (And that will happen soon--can't leave a bad beat post up for too long.) Humor Monday, May 22, 2006 I didn't cash in six tournaments today (and it's starting to get old), and I still don't have too much to report in the way of interesting hands. So, instead of showing you an interesting hand, I'll show you a funny hand from the Full Tilt WSOP super satellite I just played (emphasis added). Full Tilt Poker Game #654277261: WSOP Main Event Qualifier (4011295), Table 4 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:18:22 ET - 2006/05/21 Seat 1: MVMadman (1,840) Seat 2: pennohawk (3,875) Seat 3: jacksup (3,315) Seat 4: twopairdad (1,290) Seat 5: DavidH (1,685) Seat 6: bert2245 (3,710) Seat 7: Steve Zolotow (1,865) Seat 8: All In At 420 (275) All In At 420 posts the small blind of 20 MVMadman posts the big blind of 40 The button is in seat #7 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to jacksup [Th As] pennohawk folds jacksup raises to 90 twopairdad folds DavidH folds bert2245 calls 90 Steve Zolotow calls 90 All In At 420 folds MVMadman folds *** FLOP *** [2s 9c 9s] jacksup checks bert2245 bets 40 Steve Zolotow calls 40 jacksup calls 40 *** TURN *** [2s 9c 9s] [Ks] jacksup checks bert2245 checks Steve Zolotow checks *** RIVER *** [2s 9c 9s Ks] [5s] jacksup checks bert2245 checks Steve Zolotow bets 450 jacksup calls 450 bert2245 calls 450 *** SHOW DOWN *** Steve Zolotow shows [Jd Ad] (a pair of Nines) jacksup shows [Th As] (a flush, Ace high) bert2245 mucks jacksup wins the pot (1,800) with a flush, Ace high *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 1,800 | Rake 0 Board: [2s 9c 9s Ks 5s] Seat 1: MVMadman (big blind) folded before the Flop Seat 2: pennohawk didn't bet (folded) Seat 3: jacksup showed [Th As] and won (1,800) with a flush, Ace high Seat 4: twopairdad didn't bet (folded) Seat 5: DavidH didn't bet (folded) Seat 6: bert2245 mucked [2h 4h] - two pair, Nines and Twos Seat 7: Steve Zolotow (button) showed [Jd Ad] and lost with a pair of Nines Before I give any analysis, I'm going to take a poll. What was the EV, to the nearest unit, of bert2245's overcall on the river? Assume he views Steve as a typical FTP pro, and me as a typical internet player. Just so everyone knows what they're doing, the lowest his EV could be is -450, meaning he never gets any money back from the pot. The highest it could be is +1350, meaning he always has the best hand. Give me an exact guess, like +124, or -356, and send them to jacksup@mattmatros.com. When I get 15-20 responses, I'll post the results. Best of luck in everyone's poker games this week. Non-Update Update Tuesday, May 16, 2006 I'm starting now to get back into the regular swing on internet poker, but I celebrated my birthday and Mother's Day this weekend, so I skipped the usual slew of tournaments. I am, however, playing more tournaments during the week, so I'll do my best to write stuff about those. I'd post some of my bustout hands from tonight, but none were interesting. I rarely find hands interesting anymore, except at the theoretical level. I guess that's one of the curses of learning the game. But I do still find hands funny! Like this one, from a $40-$80 Limit game I was in tonight! I will leave you with it... Game #1475741540 - $40/$80 Texas Hold'em - 2006/05/15-21:58:03.2 (CST) Table "Maracuja" (real money) -- Seat 4 is the button Seat 1: jacksup13 ($3,636.50 in chips) Seat 2: GameDayGuru ($2,500.00 in chips) Seat 4: sinawina87 ($1,577.00 in chips) Seat 5: SoloPogo ($2,900.00 in chips) Seat 6: kelaita ($2,148.50 in chips) Seat 7: raspyBig ($1,677.00 in chips) Seat 8: phil4short ($760.00 in chips) Seat 9: mrstyle ($2,666.00 in chips) Seat 10: qbeat ($1,560.00 in chips) SoloPogo: Post Small Blind ($20) kelaita : Post Big Blind ($40) GameDayGuru: Post ($40) Dealing... Dealt to jacksup13 [ 9d ] Dealt to jacksup13 [ 9h ] raspyBig: Call ($40) phil4short: Call ($40) mrstyle : Call ($40) qbeat : Fold jacksup13: Raise ($80) GameDayGuru: Fold sinawina87: Fold SoloPogo: Fold kelaita : Call ($40) raspyBig: Call ($40) phil4short: Call ($40) mrstyle : Raise ($80) jacksup13: Raise ($80) kelaita : Call ($80) raspyBig: Call ($80) phil4short: Call ($80) mrstyle : Call ($40) *** FLOP *** : [ Qc 6h Kd ] kelaita : Check raspyBig: Check phil4short: Check mrstyle : Check jacksup13: Bet ($40) kelaita : Fold raspyBig: Fold phil4short: Fold mrstyle : Fold jacksup13: Winner -- doesn't show cards One Time Friday, May 05, 2006 So I decided to play a couple tournaments last night just to shake things up (I haven't been playing tournaments during the week, but I think I'm going to start). Deep into the PokerStars $150 event, I lost a coin flip for the chip lead and busted on the next hand. I also entered the $200 WSOP Super Satellite on FullTilt. Finally some things went my way and I managed to win a seat. It was my second attempt to win a WSOP seat, and my first attempt on FullTilt, so I'm pretty pleased. Of course, I only won about $7,000 on the day (counting the seat as an $11,784 profit--which I do, because I was going to play the WSOP regardless) because I was running in my usual manner leading up to the FullTilt super. Example: lost a $4,500 pot in a NL cash game when 95% of the money went in post-flop on a board of J848. I had two fours, and the guy who overplayed his aces hit an eight on the end. Still, feels so good to have finally won something. I hope to keep that up over the rest of the month.  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© 2004-2006 by Matt Matros | All Rights Reserved |
