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Quiz Answers, Bets, and Politics
Saturday, February 25, 2006 First, let's get the politics out of the way. All World Poker Tour players recently received an email from Peter Hughes, the new Chief Operating Officer. The email says, among other things, that WPT is establishing a WPT Player Advisory Committee to serve as a direct line for the players to voice their concerns to WPT management. I've never been much of a politician, but I really think I can be a huge asset to this committee. It's time someone explained to WPT management, in repeated, excruciating detail, exactly why we shouldn't be paying juice for televised events, exactly why collusion is an enormous problem that has to be addressed, exactly why we're unhappy with the release waiver, exactly why the final table structure is deplorable, and exactly why we need to establish clear rules and penalties for softplaying. And of course, I attend most major tournaments and I'm readily accessible through my web site (www.mattmatros.com), so it will be easy for any player who chooses to contact me with new ideas. In short, I have the time, energy, and commitment to actually make a difference in seeing that players get the rights, and the money, they deserve. To nominate me for the WPT Player Advisory Committee, reply to Peter Hughes's email at playerrelations@worldpokertour.com . If you don't have the original email, I'm pretty confident a new email to that address will do the trick just as well, so long as you're on their list of players. Thanks for reading. P.S. If you're enthused enough about my candidacy, please pass the word on to your friends who play the WPT. Thanks. P.P.S. Players can nominate up to four people for the committee. One person I'd like to recommend is Ken Adams, a partner in a Washington D.C. law firm who is also a regular on the WPT, and a poker columnist for CBS News. I think it'd be great to have a legal expert on our side, and I know Ken very well and am extremely confident he would be tremendously helpful. I have no recommendations besides Ken at this point, but when other qualified people express their interest to me, I'll be sure to pass the word on via this journal. OK, now that that's out of the way, here are the answers to the L.A. quiz (see two posts back). Hand 1 My Answer: My opponent's range is pretty much "any two cards," even after his flop bet. His turn bet doesn't narrow it very much either. Once I lead the river and he puts in the small raise, we can finally narrow his range a little--but only a little. If he had just an ace or a king, he would almost certainly call my bet, not raise it. He would only raise for value with a big hand, like aces up or better. This means there is still an excellent chance he has nothing. Given that I'm getting 4-1, I think I have to call with pretty much anything that beats a bluff. Results: I had K5o and called. My opponent showed QTo, and I won. Your answers: No offense, but most of you botched this one. More than half of you wanted me to muck if I didn't have at least two pair. I did, however, get some answers I liked. A guy named Todd said, "I am going to have to call his raise with whatever hand was good enough to lead out with, unless it was a total bluff." And a Darren said, "It's tough to tell if he is trying to price you in or if he is bluffing and leaving himself with 10 blinds behind just in case....Since you're getting over 4 to 1 on a call of his raise, it seems like if he's a bold enough player to bluff over a 20% of the time in that spot, you have to call with any pair." I agree with these statements. Hand 2 My Answer: There was a (too) subtle hint in here that I don't think anyone got, that was somewhat of a tipoff saying my hand wasn't so good. I wrote that my opponent "emphatically fired in" his flop bet. Since I didn't read this opponent as tricky, I decided this tell meant what it usually means, and that he was weak. So I decided to make a play at the pot. But let me back up. With a ton of money already in the pot from the blinds and antes, I'm going to raise from the small blind with almost any two cards. So my preflop range is huge. Checking the flop doesn't narrow my range very much. I could have a huge hand, or nothing. Or I could have a weakish semibluffing hand where I'm looking for more information. (That's what I actually had.) Once I make the check-raise on the flop, my turn bet doesn't narrow my range at all, as I hit the perfect card for a continuation bet. So, given that I mentioned the "emphatic" nature of my opponent's flop bet, I'd say my range here is very, very wide, but I probably have some kind of out if I get called. Results: I had Th3d. My opponent folded on the turn. Your answers: As I said, this was a tough quiz. More than half of you said my range was very strong. (For future reference, that answer will rarely be correct in a blind-on-blind scenario.) But a few of you did say I could be very strong, or very weak. That's pretty much right. Hand 3 My answer: I don't really know what Alan's range is. I'm still working on how to figure that out. As such, I don't know what I'm supposed to call with. But I know I'm getting 3-1, so I doubt I'm being too exploitable if I call with, say TT+. Results: I had JJ and called. Alan had AK and won. Your answers: You all got Alan's range "right," as none of you could figure it out either. But all except two of you would've called with my jacks, so I guess that's something. Hand 4 My answer: Again, I don't know what Alan's range is. It definitely includes straights and sets, but I'm not sure to what extent (if any) it includes other hands. Again, I'm getting 3-1. I'm guessing I should call with a set of eights or better. Results: I called with a set of nines. Alan showed a set of tens. Your answers: Most of you were still perplexed by Alan, but overall you gave him a stronger range on this hand than on the last one. Still, only one of you would've mucked my set of nines. Good to see my thinking wasn't so far out of line with everyone else's. Although we all might have no idea what we're talking about--there might just be a reason Alan has won a couple of these things. Last, and least, you can bet on me to win the Paradise Masters Showdown tomorrow at sportsbook.com. (It's easiest to get there through the Paradise Poker interface. Once you're logged in to sportsbook.com, click on the Special tab and you'll be able to get to the Paradise Masters Showdown odds.) There are 250 players and I'm listed at 125-1. I think that's actually a plus-EV bet. But even if it's not, it's clearly the best bet you'll find on there. 125-1 are the longest odds listed for anyone. Other players (some good, some bad) are listed at odds like 35-1, 60-1, and 90-1. Somehow I've slipped under the radar. So if you're looking for action, bet on me before the line moves (although somehow, I don't think it will). Max bet is 50 bucks, and I've already thrown that amount down on myself. Oh yeah, I'm "jacksup13". Good luck to everyone who read this far in all the online tournaments tomorrow, and whatever else you're doing in your gambling life. "And I can't see why you'd want to live here" Thursday, February 23, 2006 I'm leaving L.A. Thank God. Many aspects of this trip were annoying, and I don't mean the losing. Losing is a (big) part of poker, and I expect to lose sometimes. I don't expect construction to go on inside my hotel every morning, and I don't expect "random" seating to be done alphabetically by first name. The Invitational was pretty uneventful. Here's my big hand. David Williams has been playing about 50% of pots, and about 80% of pots from late position. Folds to David on the button, and he limps for 400 (everyone had anted 50). Antonio Esfandiari limped in the small blind. I made it 2600 to go in the big blind. David almost instantly moved in for 9400 total. Antonio folded, and I almost instantly called with AhTd. (I had David covered by just a little.) David seemed to think this was a sick call, and Joe Cassidy said it was a "great call." (By the way, how sick is it that at a Celebrity Invitational I draw a table with Joe Cassidy, Huck Seed, David Williams, and Antonio Esfandiari?) I sometimes find it funny how differently I see things, because I thought it was pretty much an automatic call. I guess some people think I'd consider putting in a quarter of my chips with AT and then folding to a David Williams reraise. Yeah, no. David rolls over Th3h, they put exactly three hearts on board, and IG the hell back to Brooklyn N. Congrats to my nemesis Alan Goehring, on winning the LAPC main event. I'll do the quiz answers in my next post--a post I'll make from home. Finally. "I'm in Los Angeles today, garbage cans comprise the medians..." Sunday, February 19, 2006 "...of freeways always creeping, even when the population's sleeping." My wish to have one roller coaster-free day didn't materialize. I got it up to 360k yesterday, before running into Alan Goehring for most of my chips. I finally busted in a disappointing 49th place. And while I would've liked to get $19,000, because it's better than nothing, I was playing for the first prize of $2.3 million. I'm much more disappointed at not making a run at first than I am about bubbling. My poor friend Fabrice had 700k with 50 players left (when average stack was less than 300k) and ended up finishing 46th for no money. My condolences Fab, you played great. Since I got some time, and I had some fun hands yesterday, why don't we do a quiz of Matt's L.A. Day Three hands. Hand 1. Blinds 1200/2400, 400 ante. Folds to the button, a young, European-looking player (I'm trying to give as much information as I had), who open-limps. I call in the small blind. Phil Laak checks in the big blind. Flop comes K64 rainbow. I check, Phil checks, button bets 6k. I call, Phil folds. Turn 7. I check, button bets 15k, I call. River ace. I bet 15k. Button raises to 40k, leaving himself with about 25k behind. What's his range? What do I call with? What do I raise with? Hand 2. Blinds 1500/3000, 500 ante. Folds to me on the small blind. Big blind is a 40-something player who has come over the top of me once, but hasn't played any other hands since he sat down. My impression is that he is not a gambler, but not totally weak-tight either. I raise to 9500. BB calls. Flop 764 rainbow. I check. BB emphatically fires in 15k. I make it 40k. BB calls. Turn A. I bet 55k. BB has about 120k left. What's my range? What should he call with? What should he jam with? Hand 3. Blinds 2000/4000, 500 ante. Loose player limps in early position. Alan Goehring limps to my immediate right. For those who don't know, Alan is extremely loose, extremely tricky, and an extreme pain-in-the-ass to play against. In fact, I think I need to spend some time coming up with a better strategy against him for the next time we meet. I raise to 22k. All fold to the limper, who folds. Alan calls. Flop K74 rainbow. Alan checks. I bet 25k. Alan calls. Turn 6. Check, check. River 6. Alan bets 50k. What's Alan's range? What do I call with? What do I raise with? Hand 4. Blinds 2000/4000, 500 ante. Folds to Alan in late position. Alan limps. I make it 18k. Folds to Alan, who calls. Flop 986 rainbow. Alan checks. I bet 30k. Alan calls. Turn T. Alan bets 45k. I call. River A. Alan bets 100k. I have about 150k left. What's Alan's range? What do I call with? What do I jam with? Good luck with this one, because in my opinion this quiz is significantly tougher than any of the prior ones. I have confidence I'll get some really good responses, though. Email your answers to jacksup@mattmatros.com. Invitational starts on Wednesday, and I'm playing the online tournaments today. "Jet fuel stenches in the cabin, and lights flickering at random..." Saturday, February 18, 2006 My chips seemed to flicker at random today. I got up to 170k by the second break. I lost three big showdowns and was all the way down to 23k. I made a straight against a bad player, and got it back to 68k. At that point I said if I got back to 170k, I would win this tournament. Well, it took the whole damn night, but I got all my chips back. I guess now all I have to do is win this thing. It's not going to be easy. There are 97 players left, and average stack is 142,680. I'm in 29th place, but there are a ton of excellent players with more chips than I, including chip leader Fabrice Soulier (462k), J.C. Tran (426k), Alan Goehring (368k), Can Kim Hua (329k), Amir Vahedi (298k), Chris Bigler (291k), David Chiu (266k), Edward Moncada (255k), and Chip Jett (180k), just to name a few. After spending the first two days on a ridiculous roller coaster ride, I'm looking forward to a nice steady climb tomorrow. And now sleep. (I really am loopy at the end of these 12-hour days that begin at 6:30 p.m. EST. Maybe that explains the song lyrics I'm using for titles. It's a wonder I can even write these posts.) "It smells like an airport runway..." Friday, February 17, 2006 It really does. I had a totally bizarre day today. The tournament started at 3:30 p.m., which is bizarre enough (and pretty damn annoying for us east coasters). I got my starting 20k chips up to 40k, then lost a few pots and was down to 27k. Then, I opened for 600 with sevens and got called by Tony Ma in the small blind, and a loose player in the big blind. The flop came 975 with two diamonds. Tony checked, and loose led out for 1000. I made it 3500. Tony made it 11,000. Loose folded. I moved in for 15,800 more. Tony called with top set. I. Spiked. A. Seven. That got me to about 56,000. I ran it up to 67,000 before I played a weird/annoying hand where I ended up making a big bluff on the river and getting caught. I go into Day Two with 24,000. So, I actually increased my equity in the tournament today; and really, I should be considering this entire event a freeroll after hitting that one-outer for all my chips. Still, I'm somewhat disappointed to be 43,000 off my high-water mark. Oh well, I'll just have to get those chips back tomorrow. Now it's (long past) time to sleep. "I'm in Los Angeles today..." Thursday, February 16, 2006 ...to play the LA Poker Classic main event. I'm also playing the Invitational next week. It was an easy invite to get--all I had to do was wire $25,500 to the Bellagio before I left (ha!). I'll try to update every day while I'm out here, although I don't expect to play poker every day. Wish me luck. Quick, Funny Update (because I promised one) Friday, February 10, 2006 Over the last two days, I've logged about seven hours multitabling 100-200 and 50-100 Limit Hold 'Em, 75-150 Omaha/8-or-better, and 25-50 No Limit Hold 'Em. I'm up $9. I might be missing the tournaments once again on Sunday, for personal reasons (everything's fine, I just enjoy a lot of things more than poker). But I leave for LA on Wednesday. Good luck to everyone playing online tournaments this weekend. Super Bowl Monday, February 06, 2006 As per my annual tradition, I took Super Bowl Sunday off from playing poker tournaments. (I did, however, give a one-hour poker lesson, so the day wasn't entirely work-free.) I lost 400 bucks betting on the Super Bowl, which means the sum total of my NFL action for this season was minus $230. I bet sports only very occasionally, and I do it for fun, not for profit. I think I had 230 dollars worth of fun added to my NFL season because of my wagers and fantasy teams. I've decided to skip Harrah's next week, and just play L.A. In fact, I've already bought-in to L.A. with PokerStars $W (what a deal!). In the ten days leading up to my westward flight, I hope to have some further successes in my poker endeavors. And I hope my readers do, too. I'll post an update on this week's cash games (and maybe a couple tournaments) on Wednesday. Also, for those who are interested, expect a Soccer Blog update on Tuesday.  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© 2004-2006 by Matt Matros | All Rights Reserved |
