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Good Return
Monday, April 25, 2005 After traveling last week during the Sunday tournaments, I returned to the virtual felt this week and took second in the Paradise tournament. I got lucky lots of times, which is pretty much what it takes to score a high cash in a 400-person tournament that ends in five hours. Don't know how I manage to run so good on Paradise. I've played the Sunday tournament on Paradise nine times and I cashed five of those times, including a first, a second, and a fourth. Paradise has by far the worst structure of any of the Sunday tournaments, and yet that's the tournament I've crushed over the last few months. I'm starting to think I prefer a bad structure. People play way too tight in that Paradise tournament, and that's the easiest thing in the world to exploit. Again, I've been crazy lucky and I'm the first to admit it, but man is that a soft field. Of course I played a bunch of other tournaments this weekend and whiffed them, and had a rare losing session on Party, so my net for the last two days is "only" $13,679. This means that, with the money I shelled out to play the Foxwoods and Bellagio main events, I'm still stuck for the month. That I'm close to even, given how little I've played outside the big tournaments, is a miracle. So let's finally do the A4 analysis from way back when. If you recall, here was the situation: Paradise tournament. Four players left. Blinds are 6k-12k. I have 220k. Guy to my left has 20k. Guy to his left has 70k. Guy to my right has 290k (chip leader, obviously). Two folds on my big blind and chip leader makes it 32k from the small blind. Chip leader has been raising a lot. I have A4o in the big blind. Pay structure at this point, after everyone has locked up 8k, is 19.5k-8.5k-3k. What's my play? First off, I don't think I can make a reraise that's less than all-in. I don't really see the merits of that play, as any reraise pot-commits me anyway. So the choices are fold, call, jam. I'm going to rule out calling. I have a hand that I'm unlikely to make any money with by taking a flop. So by calling, on bad flops I'll lose more than I would by folding, and on good flops I'm unlikely to win more than I would by jamming. I see this is as a raise-or-fold situation. So then, what are my chances of finishing in each respective spot if I muck. I'll guesstimate... 1st - 35% 2nd - 32% 3rd - 28% 4th - 5% That makes EV(Call) = .35(19.5k) + .32(8.5k) + .28(3k) = 10.385k Now for jamming. My opponent's been raising liberally, and he's not looking to bust out. I would say there's about a 65 percent chance my jam takes down the pot right here. The other 35 percent of the time he either has a bigger ace, a pair, or two big suited cards. (If he's going to call 35% of the time, I think he has to call with KQs-KTs). I'll give him 77-AA, A9-AK, KTs-KQs. Against that range, I have 31% equity. If he folds, I guesstimate my chance of finishing in each place at: 1st - 44% 2nd - 30% 3rd - 22% 4th - 4% So when he folds to my jam, I'm worth .44(19.5k) + .3(8.5k) +.22(3k) = 11.79k When he calls me, the guesstimates are 1st - 23% 2nd - 4% 3rd - 3% 4th - 70% So when I'm called, I'm worth .23(19.5k) + .04(8.5k) + .03(3k) = 4.915k That makes EV(Jam) = .65(11.79k) + .35(4.915k) = 9.38k So the folds have it, by about $1,000. I need him to fold about 80 percent of the time for jamming to be correct. In the actual hand, I jammed and my opponent called with AT. I busted. I now think this was a mistake, as I don't think I can count on my opponent to fold often enough to make the play worthwhile. Live and learn. I'm out (I had the nuts) Tuesday, April 19, 2005 I started out slow today. Couldn't get much going and couldn't pick up a hand. I got down to T37,500 when Max Pescatori opened for T1,200 (blinds T200-T400, ante T50) for the third straight hand (once showing Ah2h). I called in the next seat with AsJs. Everyone else mucked. The flop came KQ5 with one diamond. Max checked. I bet T2,000. Max thought for a long time and called. The turn was the ten of diamonds. Max checked. I bet T4,000. Max made it T15,000. I moved in for T34,200. Max called and tabled AdKd. The river was a diamond. When you see the chip counts for the end of day, you’ll know where T75,900 of Max's chips came from. Oh well. Getting T34,200 into the pot with 77% equity is much more than I could've possibly hoped for when I got up this morning. Guess I have some time to write (and smash some Party games) now. It Begins Monday, April 18, 2005 As I type this, the cards are going in the air to start the 2005 World Poker Tour Championship. Fear not, I play tomorrow as part of Flight B, as the first day was split into two (unnecessarily, in my opinion). The market is officially closed on my backers. I sold 38.5% of myself, which means I'm putting up $12,025 for 61.5% of my action. I think this arrangement worked out nicely for myself and my backers, and I hope I can make a score for them (and for me). I almost made a mini-score yesterday. I got heads-up in a one-table satellite. Second place was $4,000, first was $25,700. I had my opponent all-in when I had the best hand with one card to come (and yes, that's when the money went in), and I couldn't manage to win. On the very next hand I moved in for 6.5 big blinds with A8 and my opponent called instantly with K3. King-high flop and I have to settle for $4,000 (aka, $1,000 profit). Oh well, I got very lucky twice to even reach heads-up, so I guess I can't complain. I haven't updated this journal since Foxwoods because I've played shockingly little poker since then. The day after I got home from Foxwoods I played some Sunday tournaments (cashed on Party and Paradise but no high cashes--made about $300 on the day) and took a few other shots at a WPT Championship seat. I actually got really close in the last $1150 super I played on Stars, but it wasn't meant to be (hence the Call for Backers post a few days later). Now I'm ready to play, though. I'm really glad I found a sensible way to enter this event, even if I only have 61.5% of myself. Updates will begin tomorrow night. Wish me luck! P.S. I've received a lot of emails asking where they can find The Mathematics of Poker by Bill Chen, Jerrod Ankenman, and Andy Latto--a book I recommended in my own book. Well, it's not out yet. But it will be out soon. I promise to post a message to this journal when their book hits the shelves. Call For Backers Wednesday, April 13, 2005 As was posted here recently, I've decided to enter the World Poker Tour Championship next week. I finished third in that event last year. Since that time, I have won more than $100,000 playing poker more-or-less part-time, and mostly on the internet. I say this not to brag, but to be clear that I haven't gone broke. The WPT Championship buy-in of $25,500 is a lot of money for most people, including me. I am not comfortable risking so much money on one event. I'm offering my readers a chance to share the risk, and any potential rewards. I am offering one percent of my action (one share) in the WPT Championship for $350. You can also buy a half-share at $175 if that's more in your price range. I know that I'm asking significantly more than face value. But I'm asking signficantly less than most professional players ask. Since I've started keeping good records, I have averaged 2.95 buy-ins profit over the last 107 multi-table tournaments I've played. While this is a small sample size, my win rate is significant. Even if I fail to cash in my next hundred tournaments, I'll still be averaging more than one buy-in profit per event. If my EV at the WPT Championship is +1 buyin, one percent of my action is worth $510. I believe anyone who invests in me in this tournament is making a plus-EV play. Again, I am not asking anyone to do me a favor. Take a piece of my action only because you think it's a good investment. OK, if you're interested, send me an email (jacksup@mattmatros.com) letting me know how many shares you'd like (again, half-shares are acceptable), along with your address and SSN (for tax purposes), and send the corresponding funds to "jacksup" at PokerStars, PartyPoker, UltimateBet, or FullTiltPoker. I'll send an email to confirm any investments. Do not consider yourself invested until you've received confirmation from me. There are currently twenty-six shares outstanding on the market. I may increase or decrease that number, but I won't take away any shares from an investor I've confirmed. I promise. One last thing. Do not request shares if you are considering playing the WPT Championship. For now, shares are only open to people not playing the event. As for other topics, I know I am behind on emails and on hand analyses. I'll get to everything soon. End of Foxwoods Saturday, April 09, 2005 Well, I couldn't get anything done in the New England Poker Classic main event. I got my starting 5k up to 8,600, but that was my high water mark. I had stolen a few pots, so when I flopped top pair on a ragged board I decided to commit when someone played back at me. It didn't work out this time. Bellagio is next, and I'm going to try for the final time this weekend to win a seat. If that fails, I'll make my decision about what form of backing I'll take. I promise to get to the A4o Paradise hand analysis sometime soon. But for those of you in suspense about the result of the hand--I moved in and got called by ATo. I didn't improve and I finished fourth. Recap Wednesday, April 06, 2005 Again I'm forced to apologize for going too long without updating this journal. I was playing somewhat non-stop this weekend, and as soon as I finished on Sunday night I drove out to Foxwoods (where I am now) for the New England Poker Classic. The internet situation here isn't great (most of the hotel rooms are without high-speed), but they do have a free wireless hookup right outside the tournament area so I'll try to remember to carry around my laptop to keep everyone updated. Here are my results since Reno. Online (Saturday and Sunday): InterPoker WSOP Circuit super satellite (-$163) Full Tilt WSOP Circuit super satellite (-$216) PokerStars WPT Championship super satellite (-$1,150) Full Tilt 50k guarantee NLHE touranment (-$109) PokerRoom Grand II NLHE tournament (-$1,000) Bodog 100k NLHE tournament, 12th place, +$991 PartyPoker NLHE tournament (-$215) PokerStars NLHE tournament (-$215) Full Tilt 75k guarantee NLHE tournament ($-216; finished 37th, 36 paid) Paradise 100k guarantee NLHE tournament, 4th place, +$7,971 Online weekend total +$5,462 Foxwoods: Monday NLHE tournament (-$1,100) Tuesday NLHE super satellite (-$450) Tuesday NLHE satellite, 1st place, +$1,900 Wednesday NLHE tournament (-$2,150) Foxwoods total (-$1,800) Most interesting hand of the last five days: Paradise tournament. Four players left. Blinds are 6k-12k. I have 220k. Guy to my left has 20k. Guy to his left has 70k. Guy to my right has 290k (chip leader, obviously). Two folds on my big blind and chip leader makes it 32k from the small blind. Chip leader has been raising a lot. I have A4o in the big blind. Pay structure at this point, after everyone has locked up 8k, is 19.5k-8.5k-3k. What's my play? Email your answer to jacksup@mattmatros.com. I've got some sleeping and then some writing to do, but I'll probably play at least two more super satellites and a single table or two before the main event (5k) starts on Friday. I'll try to keep the journal updated.  September 2004 | October 2004 | December 2004 | January 2005 | February 2005 | March 2005 | April 2005 | May 2005 | June 2005 | July 2005 | August 2005 | September 2005 | October 2005 | November 2005 | December 2005 | January 2006 | February 2006 | March 2006 | April 2006 | May 2006 | June 2006 | July 2006 | August 2006 | September 2006 | October 2006 | December 2006 | January 2007 | April 2007 | May 2007 | June 2007 | July 2007 | October 2007 | January 2008 | |
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© 2004-2006 by Matt Matros | All Rights Reserved |
