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Oh-for-three
Monday, February 28, 2005 Played the Party, Stars, and Paradise tournaments yesterday without cashing. I came the closest on Party where I finished 247th (they paid 180). Nothing all that interesting. On Paradise, I lost a race, and then couldn't run AQ through AK. On Stars, I reraised a late position raiser all-in with two nines and one of the blinds woke up with QQ. On Party, a guy limped with AJ, check-called a 2/3 pot bet on the flop with just overcards, then spiked a jack on the turn to bust me. As I said, all pretty typical. I leave tomorrow for San Jose for the next PPT event. I'll do my best to keep everyone updated through this journal. Join the Party Sunday, February 27, 2005 As my readership knows, I've been running goot in the $15-$30 games since my return to the Party. After 9,000 hands (not really that much, I know), I remain amazed by some of the things I'm seeing there. Take a look at these two back-to-back hands from yesterday. $15/$30 Hold'em - Saturday, February 26, 12:39:55 EDT 2005 Table Table 23842 (Real Money) Seat 3 is the button Total number of players : 7 Seat 2: quakergator ( $377 ) Seat 4: jacksup ( $2145 ) Seat 3: tbone499 ( $210 ) Seat 9: cuphan ( $1324 ) Seat 1: seeya333 ( $182 ) Seat 8: bpilgrim ( $750 ) Seat 5: helengu ( $750 ) jacksup posts small blind [$10]. helengu posts big blind [$15]. bpilgrim posts big blind [$15]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to jacksup [ Ks Th ] bpilgrim checks. cuphan folds. seeya333 calls [$15]. quakergator folds. tbone499 folds. jacksup calls [$5]. helengu checks. ** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 3c, 4d ] jacksup bets [$15]. helengu folds. bpilgrim calls [$15]. seeya333 folds. ** Dealing Turn ** [ Ad ] jacksup bets [$30]. bpilgrim raises [$60]. jacksup calls [$30]. ** Dealing River ** [ 4c ] jacksup checks. bpilgrim bets [$30]. jacksup calls [$30]. bpilgrim shows [ 7c, 3h ] two pairs, fours and threes. jacksup shows [ Ks, Th ] two pairs, kings and fours. jacksup wins $267 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and fours. hearthrob has joined the table. OK, so this guy posts UTG (this happens ALL the time on Party--people would rather light their money on fire than wait 30 seconds for the next hand), takes one off when he flops bottom pair, makes a play at the pot when an ace comes off, and then fires out a nonsensical bet at the river (any hand better than his that I called the turn with I will call the river with, and on top of that the flush draw came in). So we know this guy's a little touched, even if we haven't yet proven him a total fish, or maniac. Next hand. $15/$30 Hold'em - Saturday, February 26, 12:40:51 EDT 2005 Table Table 23842 (Real Money) Seat 4 is the button Total number of players : 8 Seat 2: quakergator ( $377 ) Seat 4: jacksup ( $2292 ) Seat 3: tbone499 ( $210 ) Seat 9: cuphan ( $1324 ) Seat 1: seeya333 ( $167 ) Seat 8: bpilgrim ( $630 ) Seat 5: helengu ( $735 ) Seat 6: hearthrob ( $750 ) helengu posts small blind [$10]. hearthrob posts big blind [$15]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to jacksup [ Jh Jc ] bpilgrim raises [$30]. cuphan folds. seeya333 folds. quakergator folds. tbone499 folds. jacksup raises [$45]. helengu calls [$35]. hearthrob calls [$30]. bpilgrim raises [$30]. jacksup calls [$15]. helengu calls [$15]. hearthrob calls [$15]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, 4h, 6h ] helengu checks. hearthrob checks. bpilgrim bets [$15]. jacksup raises [$30]. helengu calls [$30]. hearthrob calls [$30]. bpilgrim calls [$15]. ** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ] helengu checks. hearthrob checks. bpilgrim bets [$30]. jacksup calls [$30]. helengu calls [$30]. hearthrob calls [$30]. ** Dealing River ** [ 9c ] helengu checks. hearthrob checks. bpilgrim checks. jacksup checks. helengu shows [ 5h, 5d ] a pair of fives. hearthrob shows [ 2h, 6c ] a pair of sixes. bpilgrim shows [ 8c, 8s ] a pair of eights. jacksup shows [ Jh, Jc ] a pair of jacks. jacksup wins $477 from the main pot with a pair of jacks. So someone slides into the six seat and makes my 73o friend UTG for the second straight hand. This time he has a legitimate hand, 88, and opens. I of course three-bet, the small blind calls with 55, and the new player in the big blind calls two more cold with 62o. Nice. 88 caps it, which I don't agree with but isn't a terrible choice. We all like the flop and I'm surprised it doesn't end up capped. Then what I thought was the worst card in the deck for my hand hits on the turn. I mean, how can three opponents have stayed in for a cap preflop, and for two bets on the flop, and none of them have an ace or a flush draw? Now if the card is this bad for me, how bad is it for 88 with no heart? I at least have a heart in my hand. Apparently it's not too bad, as 88 leads out into three opponents. When the river doesn't bring a fourth heart I'm only wondering how I got beat. And then Party pushes me the pot. On every street but the flop I had an opponent representing a bigger hand than mine. Here's what my equities were at the various stages. Preflop: 58.4% !!! This is an insanely high number for a four-way pot. Flop: 48.5% Again four ways--I made almost a full big bet in EV on this street alone. Turn: 72.5% And that was after the "worst card in the deck" hit. I was thinking I was calling on just a heart draw, when in fact I made almost TWO big bets in EV on just the turn action. I guess the only thing I did wrong was miss a bet on the river! May the Party never die. Here's rooting for another good Sunday of tournaments. Royal! Friday, February 25, 2005 Believe it or not, I had never had a royal flush in Hold 'Em before today. (I had one in a stud tournament a while back.) And I had just been complaining about this fact recently. I guess there really is something to complaining. My royal was a two-outer, no less. I can't believe this guy (correctly) didn't reraise the river. $15/$30 Hold'em - Friday, February 25, 13:58:04 EDT 2005 Table Table 34808 (Real Money) Seat 1 is the button Total number of players : 5 Seat 1: jacksup ( $1249 ) Seat 4: Lionel3535 ( $586 ) Seat 8: bucephelus ( $648.5 ) Seat 3: str8man ( $862 ) Seat 5: tomole58 ( $1816 ) str8man posts small blind [$10]. Lionel3535 posts big blind [$15]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to jacksup [ Td Th ] tomole58 folds. bucephelus raises [$30]. jacksup raises [$45]. str8man calls [$35]. Lionel3535 folds. bucephelus calls [$15]. ** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, Jd, Qc ] str8man checks. >You have options at Table 23844 Table!. bucephelus bets [$15]. jacksup calls [$15]. >You have options at Table 23844 Table!. str8man calls [$15]. ** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ] str8man checks. bucephelus bets [$30]. jacksup calls [$30]. str8man calls [$30]. ** Dealing River ** [ Ad ] str8man checks. bucephelus bets [$30]. jacksup raises [$60]. str8man folds. bucephelus calls [$30]. jacksup shows [ Td, Th ] Royal Flush. bucephelus doesn't show [ Ks, Qs ] a full house, Queens full of kings. jacksup wins $403 from the main pot with Royal Flush. Football results Wednesday, February 23, 2005 Even though I only got three responses to my football question, I figured I better tally up the results since even the Pro Bowl is behind us now. Besides, four heads are better than one, and every decision we make at the poker table we make alone. So despite the small sample size, I think this analysis will still be somewhat worthwhile. To recap, in Super Bowl XXXIX, Philadelphia was down by 3 with 1:48 left and they had two timeouts. They were faced with the choice of trying an onside kick or kicking deep. They chose to try an onside kick. I asked a bunch of questions to my readers to help analyze this decision. Here are the questions, followed by the average of the four answers I got (three from my readers, and then my own answer). 1) What were Philly's chances of recovering the onside kick? 14.25% 2) What were Philly's chances of kicking a field goal if they did recover? 56.25% 3) What were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown if they did recover? 20% 4) What were Philly's chances of stopping the Pats and getting the ball back if the Pats got the ball after the Philly kickoff? 62.5% 5) If the Pats recovered an onside kick, what were Philly's chances of scoring a field goal after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 11.75% 6) If the Pats recovered an onside kick, what were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 2.25% 7) If Philly had kicked deep, what were Philly's chances of scoring a field goal after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 35% 8) If Philly had kicked deep, what were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 7.5% To keep things simple, let's assume a Philly field goal sends the game to overtime, where each team has 50% equity, and a Philly touchdown is as good as a win. Philly's equity from an onside kick then, is (.1425)(.5625)(.5) + (.1425)(.2) + (.8575)(.625)(.1175)(.5) + (.8575)(.625)(.0225) = .0400 + .0285 + .0315 + .0121 = .1121 That is, an onside kick gave Philly an 11.2% chance of winning the game. Philly's equity from kicking deep is (.625)(.35)(.5) + (.625)(.075) = .1094 + .0469 = .1563 That is, kicking deep gave Philly a 15.6% chance of winning the game. So collectively, the four of us who took part in this poll think Philly had 4.4% more equity by kicking deep. Another way to say that, Philly was 39% more likely to win the game by kicking deep than they were by trying an onside kick. You can play with these numbers and argue that Philly had only 95% equity if they scored a touchdown, or 49.5% equity if they kicked a field goal. It won't matter much to the final numbers. I am now convinced that trying an onside kick in that situation was a big mistake. People wonder how the Patriots have managed to win three of four Super Bowls without dominant talent. Well, one way they do it is by almost always making the correct decision in situations like this. These mistakes add up. Ask any poker player. Good Sunday Monday, February 21, 2005 Well apparently all I have to do is complain about not winning a tournament and the poker gods let me win one. I placed first in the $300 Paradise tournament yesterday, netting a little more than $33,000 for my efforts. It felt as though the blinds got bigger faster than they usually do in these things, so a lot of the play was shoving and defending preflop. I got great cards and got a few gifts, and there really weren't too many interesting hands until it got heads-up. So I'll give you two hands from the heads-up portion of events. Blinds are 10k-20k with a 2k ante. There is about a $13.5 difference between first and second. Hand 1: Opponent opens for 60k. I call on BB with TT. Flop comes K8x. I check. Opponent bets 80k. I jam for 120k more (he has me well covered). He folds, claiming he had A9. (OK, maybe even that hand wasn't that interesting, but it's sort of a setup for the next hand.) Hand 2: Chips are about even. Opponent opens for 60k. I call on BB with A7. Flop comes JJ2. I check. Opponent bets 80k. I call. Turn is an 8. I jam for 200k. Opponent thinks for a while and mucks. I think this second hand won me the heads-up match. I really think he mucked a better hand than mine, and I really don't think he would've mucked it preflop or on the flop--especially since I had already done that flop check-raise once and got him to fold. Anyway, a nice result to cap off a nice weekend. In addition to my nice result, my friend Nordberg took sixth in the PokerStars $200 tournament. Congrats Nord! Also, my friend Andy Bloch is the chip leader at a little tournament called the L.A. Poker Classic. Go Andy go!!!! It's a book! Sunday, February 20, 2005 I got my first advance copy of my book in the mail yesterday. Crazy! (And yes, exciting.) At first glance there are no obvious catastrophic mistakes (every writer's greatest fear), and I really do like the jacket design. Those of you who have already ordered The Making of a Poker Player, it should be coming to you around April 5. Those who haven't--what are you waiting for! :) Time now for another Sunday of poker tournaments (although it seems UB got rid of their $500 tournament--anybody know what's up with that?). The streak ends Wednesday, February 16, 2005 After going 22 straight multitable tournaments without cashing, I came in third in the $150 tournament on PartyPoker last night, for a profit of 50.75 buyins. That means even with the long dry spell, I am +2.27 buyins per tournament this year--a far better than expected number. It's not about cashes, it's about high finishes. Of course I was the chip leader three-handed and had an excellent chance to win, but both my opponents were good players and when the blinds get big anything can happen in a three-handed game. And anything did. The tighter of my two opponents woke up with top pair, top set, and top pair in the three hands I got involved with her. Jeeez. Of course I'm not going to argue with a 50.75 buy-in profit, but just once I'd like NOT to finish third. (To be fair to myself, I won the $100 rebuy tournament on PokerStars back on November 21, so it's not as though I NEVER win anything. But I do have a lot of thirds.) While the money is great, I really hate playing on Party. Here are the first two in an occasional series of Party Fantastic Features. Party Fantastic Feature #27: If it's my turn to post the blind and I click "Sit Out" instead, a popup message comes up telling me that I could check "Auto Post Blinds" and the other players would appreciate it. Umm, Party, I just chose to SIT OUT. Why would I check AUTO POST BLINDS???? Party Fantastic Feature #49: On the inter-account transfers page on Party's website, they will sometimes list transfers from your account to people you don't know, for no reason! I learned of this feature yesterday morning, when it said that I had transferred $6000 to a user named "Trip2Vegas." Well, I did no such thing, so I called their support. Turns out it was some kind of internal bookkeeping thing where they transferred $6000 to my account and then out of my account, because I won a Trip To Vegas package worth $6000 NINE MONTHS AGO. Not only that, on their inter-account transfers page, there was no record of my receiving $6000, only a record of my transferring it. Only from the client interface could I have seen the $6000 credit and refund to my account. Lovely. Twenty-nine days ago I returned to the Party after a long hiatus. In that time, I've made $25,049.50 on their site. And I'm still considering leaving again. What does that tell you? Hope my readership is running good. Still waiting for more responses on the football question (I've only received two)... In the Airport Saturday, February 12, 2005 Yes, I'm there right now in fact, typing this on JetBlue's wireless connection in Long Beach. Pretty sweet. Congratulations are in order for my L.A. roommate Chris, who took home second place in the most recent $1,000 No Limit Hold 'Em tournament of the L.A. Poker Classic. Yeah, baby! I don't know if I'm ever happier than when someone I like and respect does well in a poker tournament. As for me, I didn't feel much up to playing over my last 24 hours in Los Angeles, so I spent most of the time recovering from illness. Thankfully, I think I finally am starting to feel better. But I wouldn't leave without one final hand for my readers. Last L.A. Ring Game Hand of the Day: $40-$80. I wasn't involved too much in this one, but it's still priceless. UTG limps. A few others limp. I raise on the button with AT. The small blind three-bets. UTG caps. We lose one of the limpers and the rest of the field calls. The flop comes J62. The small blind bets, UTG says "reraise" and throws in 80 bucks. The rest of us fold and the small blind calls. The turn comes six. The small blind check-calls. The river is a blank. The small blind check-calls one last time. UTG announces, "full house" and turns over Js5s. Then he says, "almost." The small blind rolls over pocket kings and takes the pot. As he's dragging the chips he says, "full house?" And UTG says, "I swear I thought I had jack-six." Goodbye L.A.!! See you next year!! L.A. Day Seven Friday, February 11, 2005 Felt crappy again today. I jumped in a $40-$80 game while waiting for the tournament to start and won a little less than a buy-in. This is always nice. From the perspective of trying to get better ASAP, I probably shouldn't have played the tournament ($1000 NL). I'm confident it was still a +EV move, however (I was at least a little sick for most of the WPT Championship), and of course I played. I got my stack up to T2700, when I lost almost all of it with QQ against a flopped set (five people had called my 5x BB raise preflop, so I was pretty much forced to commit with an overpair to the flop). Down to T325, I ran my chips back to T2100 with the help of just one suckout. I could've had T2600 but I had an instance of Matt Honesty. With blinds of T50 and T100, I limped after two limpers with Jh8d on the small blind. With T400 in the middle, I moved in for T600 when the flop comes T72 with two hearts. Minh Nguyen, the first limper, called instantly and everyone else folded. "Nice hand Minh, I need a nine," I said. He then rolled over AsTs. "Or a jack," I said. Then the turn came queen of hearts. "Or a heart," I said. The river came king of hearts and I said, "Sorry Minh, you owe me six hundred." The runner-runner flush brought me the T1600 pot. Except that when I stacked my chips I had T2200. It was pretty obvious what happened. Minh had called the T600 when I initially moved in, and then paid it off again after I won. Since the next hand was underway, I couldn't just give the chips back, so I called the floor over and they let me give Minh T600 a couple hands later. Minh gave me 1% of him for my honesty. Really, stuff like this isn't a big deal to me. I don't want to screw anyone else over, and I don't want any chips that aren't mine. If that's makes me absurdly honest or ethical or whatever, I'll live with that label. I eventually did get my chips up to T2900, but I never reached the magical double-up mark of T3000. My final hand was a blind-on-blind. I opened for T500 on the small blind with Ks7s and the big blind called me for T300 more. The flop came 822 with two clubs and we went check-check. The turn was a four and I led for T500. My opponent thought for a while and called. The river was a five. I'd been playing with this guy for a few hours at this point, and thought his most likely holding was an ace or two big paint cards (with a pair, he would've been aggressive before this point), and I was very confident he wouldn't call a second bet with one of those hands. The other option was that he was trapping, but the only trapping hand was a deuce, and it was unlikely he called my raise preflop with a deuce. So I moved in for T1175, and I got called instantly by Ah2h. Oh well. Twenty-one. A lot of people asked me why I thought the guy with the JJ on my PPT bustout hand played his jacks so badly. The short answer is, he got 187 blinds in the pot on a flop of 653 after committing only 11 blinds preflop. A longer answer is: He called an all-in raise for 70 percent of his stack when he had almost no equity in the pot. Let's say my range is AdKd, AdQd, AA, KK. That makes 2 hand combinations where he has 45 percent equity, and 12 where he has 8 percent equity, meaning his equity against my range is a paltry 14.6%. You may think the range I've given myself is too tight, but actually the opposite is true. The range I've given myself here is actually his best-case scenario. In real life, my range is probably closer to AdKd, QQ-AA, making his equity 11.4%. But here's the real point--there is no way in the world I, or any other good player, will ever show up with tens or worse in this spot. To call with jacks here, you're praying I have the flush draw with overcards. Yes, you're getting almost 2-1 on your money and you might have a coinflop. But this isn't a preflop situation where my range might be QQ-AA, AK and there are 16 ways you have 57% equity, and 18 ways you have 18% equity. In this postflop situation, it is overwhelming likely that I have an overpair to your JJ, and even in the rare cases where I don't, you still win only 45% of the time. So yes, JJ played his hand terribly. The follow-up question was, how would I have played the jacks? Well, for starters I would've opened for an amount smaller than 4x the BB. I would've still called the reraise preflop, as my opponent did. And then I probably would've called the bet on the flop, planning to reevaluate on the turn. If I had chosen to raise the flop, I would've raised a significantly smaller amount than my opponent did, and I would've folded to a jam. The internet was down at my hotel last night, so again you get two L.A. ring hands for one. L.A. Ring Game Hand from Yesterday: $40-$80. One limper, one raiser, and three cold callers. I call on the small blind with 6s5s. Big blind calls, limper calls. Flop comes 742 with one spade. I lead out and get called in four spots. Turn is the beautiful eight of spades. I lead again, the big blind calls, the next guy folds, a late position player raises. I three-bet. The big blind cold-calls $160 more. Late position calls. River is a six. I bet, both call. I chop with the big blind, who rolls over 53o. The best is, as the dealer is splitting up the pot, the big blind is saying repeatedly, "I was hoping for the ace." Finally I tell him, "the ace wouldn't have helped you." Long live L.A.!! L.A. Ring Game Hand of the day: $40-$80. One limper, I raise with QQ. Guy to my left three-bets. Limper calls, I cap, both call. Flop comes J99. Check, I bet. Three-bettor raises. Limper folds, I call. Turn is a blank. I check-call. River is a king. I bet for value. Opponent calls. I table my hand. He shows me a jack and mucks. If we're generous, this guy is three-betting me after I've raised a limper with AJ. I guess you can't fault the rest of his play too much after that initial decision. Long live L.A.!! L.A. Day Five Wednesday, February 09, 2005 The PPT was short and sweet. We started with T10,000. I had T9,900 when this hand went down. With blinds of T25 and T50, a middle position player made it T200 to go. I have no idea who he was, and neither did anyone else it seemed. (Incidentally, for a pro-only event, my table was extraordinarily soft.) I made it T550 from the small blind with AdKd. The big blind folded, and the raiser called instantly. The flop came 653 with two diamonds. I bet T700, my opponent made it T3000. I jammed. He called without too much thought. He had two jacks with no diamond. I was a 55-45 favorite (I was surprised it was that high, but I PokerStoved it myself), but alas my hand couldn't "hold up." He had me covered by a quarter and I busted. He played his jacks terribly and got rewarded. That's poker. I jumped into a $30-$60 game for an hour and a half before the Limit Hold 'Em tournament and made about $2,100. Then I ran my starting stack of T1,500 up to about T6,700 in the Limit tournament. Unfortunately, I then lost the next four hands I played and was out. For those counting, that makes 20 in a row without a cash. For those sending those "sorry for your bad run" emails, don't sweat it. Over my last 30 tournaments, I'm still up 29.44 buyins. It's not about cashing, it's about high finishes. I gypped you guys out of a ring game hand yesterday, so we'll do two today. L.A. Ring Game Hand from Yesterday: $40-$80. Very aggressive player opens in middle position. I cold-call on the button with KsTs. A loose player calls on the big blind. Flop comes Q74. Checked around. Turn is like an 8. Checked around. River pairs the seven. Big blind checks, aggressive player bets. I think for a while and call. Big blind mucks. Aggressive player mucks. This happens all the time out here--a guy bets the river, his opponent calls, and he mucks. It actually gives you some value in calling with a hand like six-high that can't beat a bluff--you have the equity from your opponent mucking! Long live L.A.!! L.A. Ring Game Hand of the Day: $30-$60. Not one, but two people post a big blind and a dead small blind in a six handed game. I'm UTG and open with Kh7h. I think this is automatic when the pot has $150 in it before the cards are dealt, and a raise only costs me $60. Both posters call, the button calls, the big blind calls. Flop comes A87. Big blind checks. I bet. The posters and button muck, the big blind calls. Turn is a blank. Big blind checks, I bet, big blind calls. River is a blank. Big blind checks, I check. He says, "Just a seven." He has 97, my king plays, I scoop. Long live L.A.!! Current trip numbers below. Commerce: -$2,633 Online: +$3,716 Why do I ever leave the hotel room? L.A. Day Four Tuesday, February 08, 2005 Sort of a frustrating day. I sat in an OK but not great $40-$80 game for about six hours (which was pretty much all I could stand as my illness has now caught up to me and I'm really exhausted--but the Tylenol has helped me to function). I was around even most of the day and just about to leave, when my friend Gavin Griffin sat in the game. We were chatting for a while and I took the first pot we were both involved in. But then he took two pots off me that I would've won against any other player in $40-$80 land. So that was annoying, but my hats off to Gavin on two very nice plays. Ended up booking a (again, relatively) small loss today. Time to rest up for the PPT tomorrow. Rant while waiting for Tylenol to kick in Monday, February 07, 2005 Too uncomfortable to sleep, I first tried reading some of Dan Harrington's book before I finally bit the bullet and called a car to take me to the Commerce Casino, where I went in, bought Tylenol, and promptly left. While I'm waiting for the medicine to take effect and put me to sleep, I figured I'd type up a quick rant. Harrington seems to be pretty good at analyzing hands. I don't agree with everything he says, but different opinions are just that--opinions. But then I get to page 206, and suddenly Harrington loses his mind. He's discussing a hand he played at the 2003 WSOP main event with seven players left. Blinds are T15k/T30k with a 3k ante. Sammy Farha opens UTG for T60k. Jason Lester, two to Farha's left, calls. Harrington, immediately to Lester's left, has 575k in front of him (second shortest stack at the table, and the shortest of everyone involved in the hand), and makes it 200k with two kings. Now here's how Harrington writes that up: "I decided to raise $200,000, overbetting the pot." He meant to write "raise to $200,000" (and it's clear that is what he meant, as he later says that Lester called $140k more), but that's a pretty easy mistake to make. In what universe, however, is the raise to $200,000 an overbet? He's offering his opponents 2.76-1 to call him. In fact, four pages earlier he said getting 2-1 on your money preflop was a "slightly favorable" price that argues for continuing with a hand (which it is). But now it's an overbet when the guy's getting 2.76-1? I wouldn't be ranting this much if Harrington didn't say this later on: "To the uninitiated, Jason and I look like a couple of amateurs here. I make a too-large raise with my kings, practically announcing I have a big pair..." Well I agree that he's announcing he has a big pair, but he's announcing it because the raise is too small. I mean, what does he think the right raise was? A raise to T150k, practically forcing everyone to call no matter what they had? Not only that, he's put in more than a third of his stack. Without a monster hand, wouldn't Harrington have just moved in here? I don't know what Farha had (he mucked to Harrington's raise), but I bet he would've been more likely to call if Harrington had moved in. I can only think of three explanations for how this analysis got in this otherwise well-thought-out book. 1) There was some miscommunication between Harrington and his coauthor. 2) Harrington, afraid that he's giving away too much information, is deliberately trying to confuse people about the way he actually plays poker. 3) Harrington has some kind of mental block when analyzing hands he was personally involved in. I mean, it's as though he started writing in a different language in this section. It's not that I disagree with it, it's that his analysis of the hand bears no resemblance to the hand itself. End rant. Time to sleep. L.A. Day Three Monday, February 07, 2005 Watched the Super Bowl with one of my best friends from college (he happens to live in Pasadena). I didn't care for Philadelphia's choice to onside kick with 1:48 left. They had two time outs. I ask football fans the following questions: 1) What were Philly's chances of recovering the onside kick? 2) What were Philly's chances of kicking a field goal if they did recover? 3) What were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown if they did recover? 4) What were Philly's chances of stopping the Pats and getting the ball back if the Pats got the ball after the Philly kickoff? 5) If the Pats recovered an onside kick, what were Philly's chances of scoring a field goal after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 6) If the Pats recovered an onside kick, what were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 7) If Philly had kicked deep, what were Philly's chances of scoring a field goal after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? 8) If Philly had kicked deep, what were Philly's chances of scoring a touchdown after stopping the Pats and forcing them to punt? If you're interested in looking at this decision (and by the way, this is similar to poker thinking, so it might be more relevant to our game than you think), send your answers to these questions to jacksup@mattmatros.com. Felt really sick after watching the game, so I went back to my hotel and played 2 tables of $15-$30 on Party. Won $2440. So here are my results for the trip so far. Commerce Casino: -$2,437 Online: +$2,428 Funny! Here's hoping I feel better tomorrow. L.A. Day Two Sunday, February 06, 2005 Didn't last too long in the $500 NL event today. I opened for T30 (blinds T5 and T15) with two red sevens, only to have the big blind reraise to T90. He'd been playing pretty aggressively, raising almost every other hand for the first 15 minutes of the event. I called. The flop came 9h9d5d. The big blind led out for T150. We only started with T1000. I decided to raise to T300. He called quickly. The turn brought the 6d. The big blind checked. The pot had T785, and I had about T600 left. I decided to check (anybody jam here?). The river brought an offsuit ten and we went check-check again. He showed black jacks and took the pot. Next I picked up AK and raised to T90 after three people had limped. The small blind called T90 cold, all the limpers mucked. The flop came 789 and the small blind led out for T100. I mucked. A few hands later I pick up AK again and open for T35. I get called in three spots. Pot is T145. Flop comes QTx with two hearts. I have the ace of hearts. First player checks, I bet T100. The guy to my left makes it T300. The two others fold. I have T365 left, so I'm getting 710-365 = 1.95-1 to call this down. In my best-case scenario I have 11 outs (counting the backdoor flush draw as an out). In my worst-case scenario I have 5 outs (we know the gutshot and backdoor flush are good, even if nothing else is). If there's any reasonable chance he has a flush draw, I think I have to play. So I get my chips in. He has KQ. I don't improve, and I'm done after half an hour. Counting the Full Tilt January Freeroll I played this morning, that makes 18 in a row with no cash. I'm a solid favorite to hit 20 now! At least I made money today by booking a (relatively) small win in the juicy $40-$80 game. L.A. ring game hand of the day: Again, a $40-$80 game. UTG limps. A terrible player limps in late position. All others fold to me in the big blind. I have AK and raise my option. UTG reraises. Terrible calls two more cold. I cap, they call. Flop comes AJx, rainbow. I bet. UTG raises. Terrible calls two cold. I three-bet. They both call. Turn is a blank. I bet. UTG calls. Terrible finally realizes his hand might not be good and mucks. River is a blank. I bet. UTG calls. I table my hand. UTG says, "I don't have kicker," shows me an ace and mucks. I'm 90 percent sure he didn't have AQ, because he would've shown me the queen. And we know he didn't have AJ because I won. So this guy limp-reraised UTG with an ace and a card smaller than a jack. Long live L.A.!! L.A. Day One (of poker) Report Saturday, February 05, 2005 Played the $1000 No Limit Hold Em tournament yesterday, also known as Me vs. Sam Grizzle. We started with T1500. I got it up to about T2800 with AA against AQ on a queen-high flop, and around that time Sam Grizzle showed up at our table. He proceeded to start limping in every other hand, calling any raise after that no matter how big, so long as his opponent had chips behind that Sam could win. He was almost directly across the table from me. Oh boy, was this gonna be fun. Sam Grizzle Hand #1: Blinds are T25-T50. I make it T125 in middle position with two red tens. A loose-ish player calls in late position, Sam calls on the big blind. T475 in the pot. Flop comes down 765 rainbow. Sam checks. I bet T300. Loose-late calls. Sam calls. T1375 in the pot. Turn comes jack. Sam checks. I bet T800. Loose-late folds. Sam thinks for a long time, and finally calls. The river comes seven. Sam moves in. He has me covered, and I have about T1500 left. I am getting about 3-1 on my money. I hate the seven. I had Sam on a seven with a straight draw, and from a game theory standpoint if there is ever a river card I am going to fold, this is it. I think for a while and fold. Sam Grizzle Hand #2: Same blinds. Sam limps (as usual). The guy to his left (new to the table) limps. I make it T250 on the button with AQ. Blinds fold, both limpers calls. Pot is T825. Flop comes down K98 with two diamonds. I have no diamond. Both limpers check. I check. Turn pairs the eight. Both limpers check. I check. River pairs the nine, making the board K9889. Sam asks me how much I have left (the guy to his left is pretty short). I tell him T1250. Sam thinks for a second and bets the T1250. Other guy folds. I think for not too long and call for all my chips. Sam says, "Good call, I play the board." Ship it. During the break, I ran into Sam and briefly chatted with him. It became obvious quickly that he'd been drinking (not a huge surprise, considering the way he'd been playing). He told me he had 9s7s on the first hand and was planning to jam the river if the board paired or if it made a four-straight, whether or not he had. On Hand #2, he says he had JT, and thought he had paired a ten on the flop. He says if he had known on the turn that he had nothing but a draw, he would've moved then and I couldn't have called. It was unclear, but I don't think he was claiming that he still thought he had a pair of tens on the river. Anyway, moving on. Sam Grizzle Hand #3: Blinds T50-T100 now. Sam opens for T400 in middle position (this is also not surprising). Folded to me on the big blind, I make it T1250 with AK. I have T3900 behind, and Sam moves me in (I picked up those other chips on another Sam Grizzle hand, which was actually too boring to include here). I call. Sam has A7. My hand holds up, and I'm suddenly over T10,000. If you're wondering where Sam keeps getting these chips from, he's been a card rack/running people over. Winning three way pots with JJ against TT and AK, moving in with 72, getting called and flopping two pair, reraising people with 65s and having them make big laydowns. Anyway, he still has about T8000 after losing this pot to me. Sam Grizzle Hand #4: Blinds T75-T150. I open for T400 in middle position with two red kings. Sam calls on the big blind. Pot is T875. Flop comes 9d6d5h. Sam leads out for T1000. I call, looking to see the turn and get some more information before proceeding further. The turn is the 4h. I like this card. Sam leads out for T4000. I think for a while, and decided to put him in for his last T2900. He calls pretty quickly with 7d5d. The pot is T16675. I have 56.8% equity. Jack of diamonds on the river, and I'm down to about T1700. Ouch. I make a few steals and work my chips back to T2400. Sam Grizzle Hand #5: Blinds T100-T200. Sam limps. The small blind limps. I look down at QQ in the big blind. Knowing Sam's propensity for calling raises, I jam for T2200 more. Sam thinks for a while... and calls. The small blinds mucks. Sam has KJo. My hand holds up, and I'm back to T5000. This hand was among the first in Sam slowly giving away all his chips. A thousand to someone over here, 2000 to someone else, etc. Small blind jams for T3400 with blinds of T100-T200? Of course Sam calls with A5o! (Actually I won't kill him over that one-from a game theory standpoint his call was correct.) Sam is all the way down to T5200, and I've whittled down to T3500 (the ante kicked in, T525 to go around and I haven't been getting cards or steal opportunities) when the next hand happens. Sam Grizzle Hand #6: Blinds T100-T200, ante T25. A bad player limps UTG+1. I limp behind him with JsTs. The guy to my left, a solid, somewhat too-tight player, makes it T800 to go. Sam calls in the small blind. The big blind folds. The limper folds. I call T600 more getting 4-1 and closing the action. The flop comes down queen-high with two spades. Sam moves in for T4400. There was T3050 in the pot preflop. I'm getting 2.1-1 on my money, I have a player behind me who is very unlikely to have a flush draw, the queen of spades is on board, so there is no way anyone could have a better hand AND a better draw, and I could actually be ahead of Sam's hand. I call for all my chips. The solid player calls both of us. Qc7c for Sam (no seven on the flop), two black aces for the solid player. Nine of diamonds on the turn. King of clubs on the river. My straight rakes in T11,150. Solid's aces bust Sam. After that it got a lot less interesting. Blinds and antes doubled to T200-T400, T50, which was just brutal and turned everything into a preflop fest. I got no cards the rest of the way and on three steal attempts I ran into legitimate hands and had to fold. Finally, with blinds of T300-T600, an ante of T75 and 38 players left (we started with 406, 27 got paid), it got folded to me on the small blind and I moved in on solid's big blind for about T5000 with T9o. He called quickly with KJo. Flop came T98. Queen on the river and I'm done—a PokerStars board if I ever saw one! Sixteen in a row with no cash. Maybe I'll have better luck today. L.A. Ring game hand of the day: Before the tournament I played a little $40-$80 Hold 'Em. Here's some typical L.A. action. UTG, a player who seems like he should know what he's doing but has completely lost his mind for the last 20 minutes, limps. A solid player raises from middle position. A loose idiot calls in late position. I three-bet everybody from the big blind with two jacks. UTG caps, the other two call, I call. The flop comes 667 with two diamonds. I bet. UTG raises. Solid calls. Loose-late folds. I three-bet. UTG caps. Solid calls two more. I call. Turn is an offsuit five. I bet. UTG calls. Solid calls. I like my hand a lot (although solid could conceivably have two queens) and I'm praying for no low card on the river. River is an offsuit eight, making the board 66758. I check. UTG bets. Solid folds. I pay off. UTG has Q9o and scoops it. Bet you didn't realize 667 was such a big flop for Q9o! I asked solid if he had me beat and he said no. He claimed he had 12 outs (so, AdTd would be my guess). Oh well, I didn't want to win a $1540 pot anyway. Long live L.A.!! The votes are in! Friday, February 04, 2005 Thanks to all who responded on the $200 Party tournament question, where the early position player opens the pot by shoving in for more than ten times the blind when several players at the table have him covered. On Sunday morning I had woken to a 6 a.m. alarm, dug my car out of the snow, driven to Foxwoods, played a WPT fan tournament there, and driven home all before the online tournaments even started. By the time we got close to the money in the Party tournament, I was exhausted. In the hand I asked about, I was the big blind, and had 3376 left after posting. After the early player shoved, everyone folded to me. So, of course, with blinds of 400 and 800, I had to call 3376 to win 3376 + 2000. Here's where I made my first mistake. I was thinking I had to call 3376 to win 3376 + 1200. I never make this mistake, so I must have truly been brain dead. That also explains what happened next, which is that I called pretty quickly with ATo. My thought process didn't go any further than, "it's Party Poker, someone attacked my blind, I'm short, and I have a big ace--let's get the chips in." In analyzing the situation the next day, I was pretty sure I made a bad call. My friend Russell once told me that preflop overbettors usually have AK or JJ, and pretty much nothing else. In the current poker universe, I would amend that to "preflop overbettors usually have AK or a medium pocket pair." If that's the entire range for my opponent here, then I have a clear fold even getting 1.6-1. But this is still Party Poker, and that brings us to the reason I posted this question--how big is the Party Idiot Factor? Big enough to justify this call? I received nine email responses to the question. Here's what y'all had to say. Eight of you pretty much ruled out KK and AA. I agree with this. Every one of you included AK in his range. I agree with that as well. Six of you included 99 in his range. That was the hand my opponent actually had. And I too would've put 99 in his range, even if I didn't already know that's what he had. And the real kicker... None of you thought there was much chance this guy could be on a move with something like QJ, 87s, or Ax. This answers my question. Based on your responses, the Party Idiot Factor is pretty small, and we need better than 1.6-1 to call here. Thanks to all who responded. By the way, I flopped an ace and won this hand (only to bust in 186th when my KK couldn't beat AQs). Poker analysis is a funny thing. Here's a hand where not only did I win, but based solely on the cards my opponent had, I played correctly. And yet here I am declaring definitively that I played it wrong. Maybe I'm just a funny thing. I write this from Los Angeles. Playing the $1000 No Limit tournament tomorrow (at least I think that's what's on tap). Wish me luck.  September 2004 | October 2004 | December 2004 | January 2005 | February 2005 | March 2005 | April 2005 | May 2005 | June 2005 | July 2005 | August 2005 | September 2005 | October 2005 | November 2005 | December 2005 | January 2006 | February 2006 | March 2006 | April 2006 | May 2006 | June 2006 | July 2006 | August 2006 | September 2006 | October 2006 | December 2006 | January 2007 | April 2007 | May 2007 | June 2007 | July 2007 | October 2007 | January 2008 | |
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